Work Package 4

Top-down/bottom-up integration

The aim of this work package is to facilitate the integration of top-down and bottom-up modelling methods to produce emissions estimates that can be used for the evaluation and improvement of inventory estimates in a way that is of most practical use by stakeholders. We will work with inventory compilers and users (e.g. Ricardo Energy and Environment and BEIS) to determine where the major challenges and uncertainties in inventory estimates lie, and where integrated top-down methods might most usefully contribute to improving the inventory.

To determine the extent to which atmospheric observations can be used to monitor progress towards emissions reductions, we will examine recent changes in the UK’s GHG budget (e.g. closure of coal power plants) and current and planned mitigation measures set out in the 5-yearly UK Carbon Budgets, investigating their detectability with the current monitoring network. We will use new methods for interrogating the spatio-temporal differences between top-down and bottom-up fluxes to understand discrepancies between them. Finally, we will start to develop a coupled top-down and bottom-up system that will use atmospheric and inventory data together to estimate parameters in the UKGHG model, leading to improved emissions estimates and uncertainty quantification.